Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -25.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | MIA -10000 CHSO +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CHSO +4 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | MIA -20.4 (-24.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.9 (+5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -18.2 (-22.2) | 148.3 (+13.7) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -16.5 (-20.5) | 149.0 (+13.0) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -15.5 (-19.5) | 148.7 (+13.3) | 87% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -18.9 (-22.9) | 146.8 (+15.2) | 86% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | CHSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-24 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 6-10 |
| Home | 7-10 | 7-5 |
| Away | 0-10 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | W1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 78.8 |
| Massey | 4.7 (#94) | -9.9 (#329) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#262) | -2.81 (#342) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.90 (#231) | -4.23 (#345) |
| RPI | 0.424 (#292) | 0.413 (#299) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | CHSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.4% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 26.8% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.8% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 56.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 13.6% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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