Betting Lines
| Spread | PENN -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | PENN +100 ME -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PENN +13 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | ME -15.2 (+28.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.7 (+1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ME -8.4 (+21.4) | 138.3 (+2.7) | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ME -8.0 (+21.0) | 138.0 (+3.0) | 21% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ME -8.6 (+21.6) | 138.3 (+2.7) | 19% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ME -7.4 (+20.4) | 137.4 (+3.6) | 33% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PENN | ME |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-19 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 4-10 | 10-6 |
| Home | 5-8 | 10-3 |
| Away | 3-10 | 8-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 67.2 |
| Massey | -16.0 (#357) | 4.9 (#92) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.26 (#326) | 0.55 (#130) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.47 (#346) | 0.87 (#121) |
| RPI | 0.338 (#354) | 0.500 (#168) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PENN | ME |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.5% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 27.5% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 61.6% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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