Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -32.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +32 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | MARQ -34.0 (-2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.1 (+6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -29.5 (+2.5) | 146.8 (+9.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -29.8 (+2.2) | 147.1 (+8.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -24.2 (+7.8) | 146.9 (+9.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -21.6 (+10.4) | 148.9 (+7.1) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 8-22 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 4-14 |
| Home | 14-3 | 7-7 |
| Away | 7-6 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 80.6 |
| Massey | 18.0 (#11) | -10.2 (#333) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.51 (#3) | -1.60 (#300) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.70 (#5) | -2.64 (#302) |
| RPI | 0.730 (#6) | 0.419 (#294) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 35.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 24.7% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.62 | 0.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 41.2% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 24.9% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 13.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.0% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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