Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | BGSU +140 NMSU -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BGSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BGSU +1 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | NMSU -4.5 (+5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (-19.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NMSU -2.3 (+3.3) | 141.3 (-20.3) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NMSU -3.0 (+4.0) | 140.7 (-19.7) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NMSU -2.9 (+3.9) | 137.8 (-16.8) | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BGSU -0.2 (+0.8) | 139.6 (-18.6) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BGSU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 8-8 | 9-6 |
| Away | 5-8 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 67.3 |
| Massey | -6.8 (#293) | -2.2 (#210) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.89 (#345) | -0.37 (#213) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.14 (#343) | -1.02 (#239) |
| RPI | 0.289 (#362) | 0.459 (#246) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BGSU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 38.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 28.3% |
| REB / G | 29.4 | 41.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 15.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 43.5% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 23.8% | 37.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 12.5% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.7% | 34.5% |
Game Analysis
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