What have I done? "Police On My Back" - The Clash
Bowling Green Falcons
61 60
FINAL Neutral Arizona Tip-Off
New Mexico State Aggies
Mullett Arena (Neutral) · November 30, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread NMSU -3.5 Home covered
O/U 144.5 Under
Money BGSU +140 / NMSU -170
Model Predictions
Spread Total BGSU win
Actual BGSU +1 121 Won
Massey NMSU -4.5 (+5.5)
Massey Totals 140.7 (-19.7)
Bradley-Terry 7%
Weighted B-T 4%
Baseline Plus ML NMSU -2.3 (+3.3) 141.3 (-20.3) 52%
Baseline ML NMSU -3.0 (+4.0) 140.7 (-19.7) 41%
Baseline Tuned ML NMSU -2.9 (+3.9) 137.8 (-16.8) 41%
Efficiency Plus ML BGSU -0.2 (+0.8) 139.6 (-18.6) 55%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings BGSU NMSU
Overall 14-18 17-15
Conference 8-10 10-8
Home 8-8 9-6
Away 5-8 8-6
Neutral 1-2 0-3
Last 5 1-4 2-3
Streak L2 L2
Avg Pts For 71.9 67.7
Avg Pts Against 75.4 67.3
Massey -6.8 (#293) -2.2 (#210)
Bradley-Terry -2.89 (#345) -0.37 (#213)
W. Bradley-Terry -4.14 (#343) -1.02 (#239)
RPI 0.289 (#362) 0.459 (#246)
Shooting & Four Factors BGSU NMSU
FG% 45.1% 38.3%
3PT% 34.2% 28.3%
REB / G 29.4 41.8
OREB / G 7.8 15.8
AST / TO 1.02 0.84
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.1% 43.5%
TOV% 16.4% 16.0%
ORB% 23.8% 37.3%
FT Rate 24.7% 25.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 53.7% 47.7%
Opp TOV% 17.3% 12.5%
DRB% 68.4% 69.1%
Opp FT Rate 33.7% 34.5%

Game Analysis

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