Betting Lines
| Spread | GTWN -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | GTWN -1500 UALB +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GTWN +32 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | GTWN -7.6 (+24.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.9 (+28.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GTWN -7.4 (+24.6) | 137.4 (+30.6) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GTWN -7.2 (+24.8) | 137.7 (+30.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GTWN -7.9 (+24.1) | 137.7 (+30.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GTWN -7.9 (+24.1) | 136.8 (+31.2) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 8-8 |
| Home | 14-5 | 7-7 |
| Away | 3-9 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 73.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#155) | -1.8 (#201) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#132) | 0.20 (#161) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#157) | 0.17 (#162) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#163) | 0.454 (#258) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 27.4% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.2 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 13.2% |
| ORB% | 37.6% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.4% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.0% | 33.5% |
Game Analysis
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