Betting Lines
| Spread | MAN -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | MAN -250 LEM +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LEM +4 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | MAN -8.2 (-12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.4 (+10.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MAN -6.1 (-10.1) | 142.2 (+15.8) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MAN -5.6 (-9.6) | 141.6 (+16.4) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MAN -5.2 (-9.2) | 141.6 (+16.4) | 71% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MAN -4.6 (-8.6) | 145.0 (+13.0) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MAN | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 4-12 |
| Home | 9-5 | 6-7 |
| Away | 8-7 | 2-16 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 81.4 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#273) | -8.3 (#313) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#231) | -1.22 (#282) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.35 (#254) | -1.44 (#261) |
| RPI | 0.456 (#253) | 0.396 (#319) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MAN | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 61.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.5% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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