Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | KENN +130 TOW -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KENN +4 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | KENN -1.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.3 (-9.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KENN -1.1 (+2.9) | 137.5 (-7.5) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KENN -1.3 (+2.7) | 137.7 (-7.7) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KENN -2.3 (+1.7) | 136.9 (-6.9) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KENN -1.1 (+2.9) | 138.9 (-8.9) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KENN | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 16-2 |
| Home | 12-3 | 12-1 |
| Away | 5-8 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 67.7 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#156) | -1.4 (#195) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.69 (#115) | 0.23 (#157) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#124) | -0.03 (#179) |
| RPI | 0.590 (#55) | 0.543 (#104) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KENN | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 37.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 43.8% |
| TOV% | 22.9% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 34.2% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.9% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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