Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -27.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | DUKE -50000 SEA +3500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +22 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -24.5 (-2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.0 (-25.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -20.8 (+1.2) | 141.8 (-23.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -20.6 (+1.4) | 141.9 (-23.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -19.8 (+2.2) | 141.6 (-23.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -18.2 (+3.8) | 135.7 (-17.7) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-4 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 19-1 | 8-8 |
| Home | 17-0 | 9-5 |
| Away | 10-1 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 8-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 67.6 |
| Massey | 24.1 (#2) | 5.3 (#89) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.85 (#55) | 0.05 (#174) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.91 (#34) | 1.27 (#107) |
| RPI | 0.597 (#47) | 0.495 (#180) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 40.8 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.7% | 59.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 79.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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