Betting Lines
| Spread | GT -22.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | GT -6000 CARK +1500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GT +19 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | GT -14.0 (+5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.2 (+0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GT -9.9 (+9.1) | 153.1 (+1.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GT -10.3 (+8.7) | 150.8 (+4.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GT -10.2 (+8.8) | 149.5 (+5.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GT -12.1 (+6.9) | 154.9 (+0.1) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GT | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 9-24 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 4-14 |
| Home | 14-6 | 7-7 |
| Away | 2-9 | 1-16 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 79.4 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#189) | -9.4 (#322) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.39 (#292) | -1.50 (#295) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.58 (#300) | -1.59 (#271) |
| RPI | 0.399 (#316) | 0.386 (#325) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GT | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 25.2% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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