Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | ASU +190 SMC -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ASU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ASU +4 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -1.1 (+5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.7 (-13.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -1.4 (+5.4) | 143.4 (-11.4) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -0.9 (+4.9) | 143.7 (-11.7) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -1.0 (+5.0) | 143.8 (-11.8) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -2.0 (+6.0) | 142.4 (-10.4) | 40% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ASU | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 29-6 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 17-1 |
| Home | 5-9 | 16-1 |
| Away | 3-8 | 9-1 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 61.8 |
| Massey | 9.9 (#52) | 11.0 (#42) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.80 (#24) | 3.44 (#15) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.96 (#29) | 5.02 (#17) |
| RPI | 0.654 (#19) | 0.742 (#3) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ASU | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 39.1% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 42.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 16.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 45.8% |
| FT Rate | 31.6% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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