Betting Lines
| Spread | NEB -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | NEB -4000 UNF +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEB +31 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | NEB -10.3 (+20.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.5 (+18.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEB -10.5 (+20.5) | 153.1 (+21.9) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEB -9.8 (+21.2) | 150.4 (+24.6) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEB -10.5 (+20.5) | 150.6 (+24.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEB -13.8 (+17.2) | 155.0 (+20.0) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEB | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-6 | 8-6 |
| Away | 5-7 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 6-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W4 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 85.7 |
| Massey | 8.9 (#61) | 4.1 (#100) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.99 (#49) | 1.32 (#75) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.22 (#45) | 1.06 (#110) |
| RPI | 0.600 (#47) | 0.556 (#85) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEB | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 12.9% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 37.9% | 14.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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