Betting Lines
| Spread | PORT -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | PORT -310 DEN +245 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PORT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PORT +11 | 191 | Won |
| Massey | PORT -2.0 (+9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.0 (+47.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PORT -2.7 (+8.3) | 145.2 (+45.8) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PORT -2.8 (+8.2) | 142.6 (+48.4) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PORT -3.2 (+7.8) | 140.4 (+50.6) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PORT -1.7 (+9.3) | 143.1 (+47.9) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PORT | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 5-11 |
| Home | 9-7 | 8-6 |
| Away | 3-9 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.2 | 77.7 |
| Massey | -12.8 (#348) | -9.3 (#322) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.26 (#334) | -1.85 (#318) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.58 (#342) | -4.00 (#347) |
| RPI | 0.428 (#291) | 0.391 (#322) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PORT | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.9% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 28.2% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 44.4% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 22.3% |
| ORB% | 19.6% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.6% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.6% | 35.9% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.