Betting Lines
| Spread | RAD -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | SFPA +265 RAD -340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFPA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RAD +9 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | SFPA -0.5 (-9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.8 (+7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RAD -2.4 (-6.6) | 142.0 (+7.0) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFPA -0.5 (-9.5) | 140.6 (+8.4) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFPA -0.6 (-9.6) | 140.7 (+8.3) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RAD -1.2 (-7.8) | 139.7 (+9.3) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2025 | RAD 89 – 56 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFPA | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 9-7 |
| Home | 10-4 | 10-3 |
| Away | 6-13 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 71.0 |
| Massey | -5.4 (#268) | -0.3 (#171) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#144) | 2.09 (#45) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#200) | 2.96 (#51) |
| RPI | 0.525 (#125) | 0.574 (#66) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFPA | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 22.8% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 36.5% |
| FT Rate | 16.2% | 29.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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