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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
29–14 on winners
spread MAE 7.8
43 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-2.2 | 140.9 | 42% | 77–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.0 | 123.1 | 83% | 53–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.5 | 143.5 | 61% | 72–77 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.7 | 139.2 | 23% | 65–69 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.4 | 148.9 | 62% | 68–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.6 | 136.3 | 46% | 71–60 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.0 | 141.3 | 59% | 73–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.4 | 146.0 | 56% | 73–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.9 | 140.1 | 86% | 63–60 | ✗ |
|
|
+12.1 | 126.7 | 86% | 55–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.8 | 135.0 | 64% | 65–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.1 | 131.2 | 87% | 60–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.4 | 131.2 | 53% | 69–66 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.0 | 148.6 | 64% | 69–71 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.7 | 137.9 | 27% | 83–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.2 | 140.1 | 65% | 73–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.9 | 135.4 | 82% | 52–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.7 | 135.8 | 59% | 54–49 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.9 | 143.7 | 38% | 82–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.1 | 144.4 | 71% | 91–85 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.0 | 151.3 | 48% | 76–85 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.5 | 141.3 | 41% | 43–63 | ✗ |
|
|
-8.7 | 160.4 | 19% | 78–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.7 | 160.2 | 87% | 79–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.5 | 168.8 | 72% | 94–91 | ✗ |
|
|
+12.6 | 152.6 | 87% | 74–71 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.6 | 132.9 | 69% | 76–75 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.3 | 138.6 | 59% | 60–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.7 | 144.2 | 90% | 70–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.9 | 140.8 | 76% | 69–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.8 | 141.7 | 88% | 72–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.9 | 141.2 | 67% | 66–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.9 | 141.7 | 86% | 65–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.6 | 140.5 | 72% | 61–46 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.7 | 142.5 | 65% | 91–84 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.6 | 144.5 | 67% | 71–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+19.4 | 140.7 | 91% | 54–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.3 | 132.1 | 78% | 82–79 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.3 | 146.1 | 83% | 86–78 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.2 | 133.3 | 84% | 77–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.2 | 136.2 | 89% | 56–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.7 | 137.7 | 69% | 66–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.3 | 135.0 | 81% | 62–76 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.