And with the way you look I understand you're not impressed. "Alison" - Elvis Costello
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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26–14 on winners spread MAE 9.5 40 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Cleveland State +9.3 148.9 84% 81–90 ✓
Old Dominion @ Florida International +5.6 135.5 73% 82–77 ✗
Michigan @ UCF +4.1 138.6 64% 71–85 ✓
Brown @ Maryland +6.0 136.8 73% 67–81 ✓
Robert Morris @ Oakland +16.5 150.9 90% 61–79 ✓
Milwaukee @ Wright State +6.3 141.7 75% 75–80 ✓
Green Bay @ Northern Kentucky +4.9 133.5 70% 74–79 ✓
UL Monroe @ Coastal Carolina +4.0 147.0 68% 64–94 ✓
Fordham @ La Salle -2.1 142.8 46% 69–61 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Richmond +8.9 143.5 82% 83–56 ✗
East Tennessee State @ Chattanooga +11.3 145.2 86% 52–82 ✓
UTEP @ UAB +15.1 140.7 88% 62–75 ✓
Lamar @ Sam Houston +5.3 138.2 71% 64–75 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Little Rock -7.8 141.5 22% 66–78 ✗
Alabama A&M @ Lipscomb +6.7 137.9 74% 63–66 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Murray State +18.1 152.2 91% 81–106 ✓
Chicago State @ Grand Canyon +14.5 132.0 90% 63–80 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Utah Valley +4.3 140.0 65% 80–76 ✗
Troy @ Texas State +9.3 139.8 84% 78–63 ✗
South Alabama @ UT Arlington -6.8 134.4 28% 87–89 ✗
Denver @ Oral Roberts +8.0 148.0 79% 66–83 ✓
South Dakota State @ North Dakota State -2.4 150.9 42% 90–86 ✓
UT Martin @ Austin Peay +4.0 143.0 68% 65–62 ✗
Utah @ Oregon State -5.7 142.4 29% 76–88 ✗
Marshall @ Louisiana Tech +11.6 157.4 85% 56–79 ✓
Sacramento State @ Southern Utah +11.5 142.6 87% 51–64 ✓
Weber State @ Montana State +5.4 142.7 76% 85–75 ✗
Idaho State @ Montana +10.4 131.7 86% 54–78 ✓
Tarleton State @ Utah Tech -3.9 136.6 35% 83–69 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ UC San Diego +2.8 137.5 66% 83–85 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Portland State -3.6 139.2 34% 63–58 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Cal State Bakersfield -0.9 129.8 49% 73–67 ✓
High Point @ Kentucky +22.1 143.8 91% 48–92 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Bryant +2.8 149.1 63% 82–85 ✓
Long Island University @ Merrimack +1.3 131.7 54% 77–82 ✓
Northeastern @ William & Mary -7.3 131.1 23% 70–71 ✗
Delaware @ Charleston +3.8 153.3 67% 67–66 ✗
Niagara @ Quinnipiac -1.6 136.1 48% 68–77 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Saint Francis +10.0 146.6 84% 70–62 ✗
Central Connecticut @ St. Francis Brooklyn +3.8 135.6 65% 67–55 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.