Betting Lines
| Spread | LAS -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FOR +8 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | FOR -2.1 (-5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.8 (-9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FOR -0.5 (-7.5) | 145.4 (-15.4) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FOR -2.1 (-5.9) | 142.8 (-12.8) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FOR -2.1 (-5.9) | 142.2 (-12.2) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FOR -2.9 (-5.1) | 145.4 (-15.4) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | LAS 87 – 84 FOR |
| Jan 29, 2026 | FOR 64 – 58 LAS |
| Jan 30, 2025 | FOR 88 – 72 LAS |
| Jan 6, 2024 | LAS 81 – 76 FOR |
| Mar 10, 2023 | FOR 69 – 61 LAS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAS | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-19 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 8-10 |
| Home | 8-7 | 10-4 |
| Away | 2-10 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 66.8 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#283) | 0.1 (#169) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.52 (#294) | -0.25 (#205) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.60 (#320) | -0.08 (#184) |
| RPI | 0.391 (#332) | 0.473 (#220) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAS | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 17.3% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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