Betting Lines
| Spread | TXST -8.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +15 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | TXST -12.5 (-27.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.9 (+3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXST -9.6 (-24.6) | 135.8 (+5.2) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXST -9.3 (-24.3) | 139.8 (+1.2) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TXST -9.4 (-24.4) | 138.7 (+2.3) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXST -9.4 (-24.4) | 137.8 (+3.2) | 81% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | TXST 74 – 62 TROY |
| Dec 31, 2025 | TROY 100 – 80 TXST |
| Feb 26, 2025 | TROY 74 – 69 TXST |
| Jan 10, 2025 | TXST 74 – 73 TROY |
| Mar 9, 2024 | TXST 74 – 68 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXST | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-8 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 12-3 | 10-6 |
| Home | 12-1 | 10-3 |
| Away | 7-6 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.3 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.3 | 67.1 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#110) | -4.2 (#246) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.48 (#67) | -0.09 (#186) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.59 (#86) | 0.04 (#172) |
| RPI | 0.560 (#78) | 0.449 (#263) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXST | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 30.9 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.3% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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