Betting Lines
| Spread | SFPA -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFPA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FDU +8 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | SFPA -12.9 (-20.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.7 (-15.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFPA -8.7 (-16.7) | 140.0 (-8.0) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFPA -10.0 (-18.0) | 146.6 (-14.6) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SFPA -9.3 (-17.3) | 145.1 (-13.1) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFPA -10.0 (-18.0) | 145.1 (-13.1) | 82% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | FDU 66 – 59 SFPA |
| Jan 4, 2026 | SFPA 85 – 82 FDU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | SFPA 85 – 80 FDU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | SFPA 75 – 71 FDU |
| Feb 17, 2024 | FDU 93 – 74 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFPA | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-21 | 4-22 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 5-13 |
| Home | 4-8 | 3-8 |
| Away | 5-13 | 2-16 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 79.2 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#273) | -14.4 (#347) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.99 (#316) | -3.18 (#348) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.46 (#314) | -4.87 (#351) |
| RPI | 0.404 (#322) | 0.403 (#325) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFPA | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 36.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 41.9% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.3% | 55.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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