Betting Lines
| Spread | MONT -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 121.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONT +24 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | MONT -14.3 (+9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.7 (+9.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONT -10.9 (+13.1) | 126.0 (+6.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONT -10.4 (+13.6) | 131.7 (+0.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONT -11.3 (+12.7) | 130.6 (+1.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONT -11.4 (+12.6) | 129.4 (+2.6) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | IDST 73 – 69 MONT |
| Jan 24, 2026 | MONT 69 – 60 IDST |
| Feb 14, 2025 | MONT 81 – 68 IDST |
| Jan 19, 2025 | IDST 86 – 62 MONT |
| Mar 13, 2024 | MONT 72 – 58 IDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONT | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 7-23 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 5-15 |
| Home | 14-3 | 5-8 |
| Away | 4-10 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L3 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 72.0 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#261) | -14.7 (#348) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#196) | -4.72 (#359) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#176) | -6.43 (#357) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#198) | 0.301 (#357) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONT | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 38.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 27.1% |
| REB / G | 28.0 | 28.4 |
| OREB / G | 5.8 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 44.2% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 22.9% |
| ORB% | 17.1% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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