Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +2 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | UCSD -4.0 (-2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.2 (+30.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSD -1.3 (+0.7) | 134.6 (+33.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSD -2.8 (-0.8) | 137.5 (+30.5) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSD -2.7 (-0.7) | 137.5 (+30.5) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSD -3.1 (-1.1) | 135.9 (+32.1) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | UCSD 64 – 63 UCSB |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UCSB 62 – 48 UCSD |
| Mar 15, 2025 | UCSD 69 – 51 UCSB |
| Jan 24, 2025 | UCSD 77 – 63 UCSB |
| Dec 6, 2024 | UCSD 84 – 76 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSD | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-16 | 17-11 |
| Conference | 0-0 | 8-5 |
| Home | 9-4 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-11 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.4 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 65.8 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#206) | -1.2 (#201) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.39 (#214) | -1.50 (#291) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#185) | -1.87 (#288) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#214) | 0.384 (#336) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSD | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 5.9 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 22.3% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 19.4% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.7% | 28.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.9% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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