I'm just like a turtle crawling out of my shell. "Boombastic" - Shaggy
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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19–8 on winners spread MAE 8.8 27 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
LSU @ Auburn +1.3 137.6 51% 55–70 ✓
Seton Hall @ Providence +0.6 139.2 56% 65–70 ✓
Missouri @ Kentucky +19.0 144.8 91% 56–83 ✓
Cornell @ Syracuse +7.4 162.1 75% 68–80 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Morehead State +18.4 133.2 91% 50–63 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Georgia +3.7 142.5 66% 77–60 ✗
Wagner @ Saint Francis -10.1 141.1 17% 72–64 ✓
Long Island University @ Sacred Heart +0.6 147.9 56% 65–69 ✓
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Merrimack +2.5 128.3 61% 64–74 ✓
Bryant @ Central Connecticut -2.0 143.6 45% 80–76 ✓
VMI @ Wofford +11.5 145.9 85% 80–73 ✗
Samford @ Furman +6.4 153.6 73% 49–81 ✓
Hofstra @ William & Mary -12.8 145.3 14% 62–63 ✗
Delaware @ UNC Wilmington -3.1 139.4 37% 68–70 ✗
Northeastern @ Elon -4.8 138.3 30% 62–79 ✗
Western Michigan @ Toledo +17.2 152.1 91% 56–83 ✓
Nevada @ Kansas +19.4 163.1 90% 61–88 ✓
Illinois State @ Wisconsin +14.4 147.9 88% 85–89 ✓
SMU @ Tulsa -2.2 144.8 44% 74–69 ✓
Memphis @ Tulane -7.8 148.2 28% 84–85 ✗
Western Illinois @ Iowa +15.1 161.0 87% 71–92 ✓
Wake Forest @ Louisville -1.0 144.4 47% 69–73 ✗
Central Arkansas @ Texas A&M +23.8 150.6 91% 59–85 ✓
Tennessee @ Alabama +1.0 152.2 57% 68–73 ✓
NC State @ Miami +6.7 151.4 78% 83–91 ✓
Maine @ Rutgers +19.6 134.2 90% 64–80 ✓
Louisiana @ App State +3.1 134.3 64% 71–55 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.