Betting Lines
| Spread | WAG -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFPA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAG +8 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | WAG -12.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.6 (-3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAG -10.7 (+2.7) | 137.6 (-1.6) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAG -10.1 (+2.1) | 141.1 (-5.1) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAG -11.8 (+3.8) | 140.7 (-4.7) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAG -12.2 (+4.2) | 141.4 (-5.4) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | WAG 65 – 56 SFPA |
| Jan 9, 2026 | SFPA 71 – 69 WAG |
| Mar 6, 2025 | SFPA 58 – 55 WAG |
| Jan 26, 2025 | WAG 68 – 66 SFPA |
| Jan 20, 2025 | WAG 70 – 68 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFPA | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-21 | 21-6 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 15-3 |
| Home | 4-8 | 13-1 |
| Away | 5-13 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 65.4 |
| Massey | -6.2 (#277) | 10.2 (#41) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.96 (#315) | 2.13 (#40) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.44 (#314) | 2.68 (#43) |
| RPI | 0.407 (#315) | 0.575 (#59) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFPA | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.1% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 24.1% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 76.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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