Betting Lines
| Spread | WIS -17.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIS +4 | 174 | Won |
| Massey | WIS -17.2 (-13.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.2 (+25.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIS -17.9 (-13.9) | 152.0 (+22.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIS -14.4 (-10.4) | 147.9 (+26.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIS -15.3 (-11.3) | 149.5 (+24.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIS -13.5 (-9.5) | 148.4 (+25.6) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIS | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 5-13 |
| Home | 12-4 | 11-6 |
| Away | 9-2 | 1-11 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 10.3 (#40) | -2.5 (#220) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.21 (#14) | -0.46 (#222) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.91 (#23) | -0.45 (#215) |
| RPI | 0.666 (#8) | 0.454 (#253) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIS | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 39.2% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.9% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 12.7% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 28.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 65.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.4% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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