Betting Lines
| Spread | UGA -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UGA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GWEB +17 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | UGA -3.9 (-20.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.1 (-2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UGA -3.7 (-20.7) | 142.5 (-5.5) | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UGA -3.7 (-20.7) | 141.6 (-4.6) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UGA -3.7 (-20.7) | 142.5 (-5.5) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UGA -3.6 (-20.6) | 142.9 (-5.9) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UGA | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#206) | -1.0 (#196) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.60 (#232) | -1.53 (#292) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.60 (#223) | -1.38 (#265) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#218) | 0.443 (#268) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UGA | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 16.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.2% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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