Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -17.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +27 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -23.6 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.1 (-13.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -19.0 (+8.0) | 153.1 (-14.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -17.2 (+9.8) | 152.1 (-13.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -19.5 (+7.5) | 151.0 (-12.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -19.0 (+8.0) | 149.5 (-10.5) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | TOL 90 – 79 WMU |
| Dec 30, 2025 | TOL 84 – 79 WMU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | TOL 76 – 70 WMU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | TOL 88 – 63 WMU |
| Jan 6, 2023 | TOL 102 – 74 WMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | WMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 4-16 |
| Home | 13-2 | 4-10 |
| Away | 9-5 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 65.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 76.2 |
| Massey | 5.8 (#91) | -13.4 (#342) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.68 (#59) | -1.12 (#264) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.02 (#66) | -1.70 (#276) |
| RPI | 0.605 (#38) | 0.453 (#255) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | WMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 40.9 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 22.8% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 13.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 56.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.3% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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