Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +5 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -1.3 (+3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.8 (-9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -2.5 (+2.5) | 151.3 (-10.3) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -1.0 (+4.0) | 152.2 (-11.2) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -0.9 (+4.1) | 150.8 (-9.8) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -1.4 (+3.6) | 152.8 (-11.8) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | ALA 71 – 69 TENN |
| Jan 25, 2026 | TENN 79 – 73 ALA |
| Mar 1, 2025 | TENN 79 – 76 ALA |
| Mar 3, 2024 | TENN 81 – 74 ALA |
| Jan 20, 2024 | TENN 91 – 71 ALA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 14-4 |
| Home | 13-3 | 16-0 |
| Away | 3-7 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.5 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 62.9 |
| Massey | 15.4 (#15) | 18.5 (#6) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.52 (#30) | 2.62 (#27) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.56 (#29) | 3.53 (#30) |
| RPI | 0.688 (#3) | 0.609 (#34) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 40.9 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 13.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 44.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 25.1% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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