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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
10–4 on winners
spread MAE 9.9
14 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Northwestern State
@
Baylor
|
+25.6 | 147.8 | 91% | 68–104 | ✓ |
Grambling
@
Southern Illinois
|
+13.8 | 131.9 | 87% | 64–75 | ✓ |
Notre Dame
@
Pittsburgh
|
-1.0 | 130.1 | 47% | 68–67 | ✓ |
Incarnate Word
@
Texas
|
+23.8 | 131.8 | 91% | 33–78 | ✓ |
Lehigh
@
Maryland
|
+15.2 | 140.1 | 89% | 55–76 | ✓ |
Fresno State
@
Boise State
|
+2.4 | 124.0 | 61% | 55–65 | ✓ |
Yale
@
Saint Mary's
|
+12.5 | 134.9 | 84% | 60–87 | ✓ |
High Point
@
Michigan State
|
+21.8 | 141.7 | 91% | 68–81 | ✓ |
Utah State
@
Air Force
|
-10.0 | 138.3 | 19% | 47–49 | ✗ |
Miami (OH)
@
Buffalo
|
+7.7 | 153.4 | 80% | 91–81 | ✗ |
Central Michigan
@
Kent State
|
+12.4 | 143.0 | 87% | 72–69 | ✗ |
Nicholls
@
Purdue
|
+20.6 | 154.3 | 91% | 90–104 | ✓ |
DePaul
@
Butler
|
-5.0 | 135.5 | 34% | 59–63 | ✗ |
Arkansas
@
Mississippi State
|
+5.9 | 147.1 | 73% | 68–81 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.