Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | SMC -850 YALE +575 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +27 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -12.3 (+14.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.2 (+16.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -11.8 (+15.2) | 131.8 (+15.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -12.5 (+14.5) | 134.9 (+12.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -13.6 (+13.4) | 135.5 (+11.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -12.2 (+14.8) | 135.2 (+11.8) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | YALE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 19-12 |
| Conference | 12-3 | 11-3 |
| Home | 16-0 | 10-3 |
| Away | 6-4 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.3 | 70.0 |
| Massey | 8.3 (#60) | 0.3 (#166) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.30 (#35) | -0.20 (#196) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.79 (#41) | 0.13 (#161) |
| RPI | 0.607 (#35) | 0.506 (#163) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | YALE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 17.3% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 80.9% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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