Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -23.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +21 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | MD -19.5 (+1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.0 (-8.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -18.6 (+2.4) | 137.7 (-6.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -15.2 (+5.8) | 140.1 (-9.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -16.1 (+4.9) | 140.8 (-9.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -15.7 (+5.3) | 139.3 (-8.3) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | LEH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-8 | 9-7 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#112) | -11.5 (#332) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#112) | -3.94 (#352) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.12 (#105) | -5.54 (#353) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#91) | 0.309 (#354) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | LEH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 23.5% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.6% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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