Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | M-OH +10 | 172 | Lost |
| Massey | BUF -9.1 (-19.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.5 (+14.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -8.1 (-18.1) | 149.6 (+22.4) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -7.7 (-17.7) | 153.4 (+18.6) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -8.1 (-18.1) | 153.3 (+18.7) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -6.6 (-16.6) | 151.2 (+20.8) | 75% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 3, 2026 | M-OH 73 – 71 BUF |
| Jan 17, 2026 | M-OH 105 – 102 BUF |
| Mar 5, 2025 | M-OH 84 – 69 BUF |
| Jan 4, 2025 | M-OH 93 – 79 BUF |
| Jan 10, 2024 | M-OH 86 – 65 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | M-OH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-11 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 13-6 | 8-12 |
| Home | 9-3 | 9-8 |
| Away | 9-5 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.7 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 76.0 |
| Massey | 5.9 (#91) | 1.1 (#145) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.60 (#127) | -0.90 (#252) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.97 (#72) | -1.24 (#254) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#114) | 0.426 (#291) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | M-OH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 40.9 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 16.7% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 17.3% |
Game Analysis
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