Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.0 Over |
| Money | SIU -1600 GRAM +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +11 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | SIU -16.6 (-5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.1 (+13.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -13.3 (-2.3) | 129.9 (+9.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -13.8 (-2.8) | 131.9 (+7.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -15.0 (-4.0) | 132.7 (+6.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -15.4 (-4.4) | 127.6 (+11.4) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-4 | 7-4 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.7 | 65.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.6 | 72.3 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#143) | -11.0 (#330) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.15 (#189) | -2.09 (#320) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#202) | -3.08 (#327) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#187) | 0.458 (#247) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 38.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 42.6% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 23.5% |
| ORB% | 24.6% | 24.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 77.0% | 61.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.6% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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