Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -22.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +13 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -25.6 (-12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.7 (+14.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -20.8 (-7.8) | 143.8 (+5.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -21.8 (-8.8) | 141.7 (+7.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -22.7 (-9.7) | 142.8 (+6.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -21.1 (-8.1) | 144.0 (+5.0) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 6-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Massey | 15.1 (#18) | -6.2 (#277) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.03 (#4) | -1.59 (#298) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.64 (#6) | -1.59 (#271) |
| RPI | 0.710 (#1) | 0.397 (#329) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.6% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 41.1 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.9% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 66.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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