Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -28.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +14 | 194 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -24.3 (-10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.1 (+41.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -21.3 (-7.3) | 153.9 (+40.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -20.6 (-6.6) | 154.3 (+39.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -22.2 (-8.2) | 154.7 (+39.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -22.6 (-8.6) | 152.6 (+41.4) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 11-3 |
| Home | 16-1 | 11-1 |
| Away | 5-5 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 73.4 |
| Massey | 19.1 (#6) | -0.9 (#192) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.84 (#23) | -0.07 (#180) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.48 (#12) | -0.42 (#214) |
| RPI | 0.621 (#26) | 0.527 (#121) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.1% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 40.4% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 42.2 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.5% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 40.4% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 12.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 78.0% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.3% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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