Betting Lines
| Spread | BOIS -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 119.0 Over |
| Money | BOIS -210 FRES +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BOIS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BOIS +10 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | BOIS -4.7 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 114.2 (+5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BOIS -4.2 (+5.8) | 121.7 (-1.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BOIS -2.4 (+7.6) | 124.0 (-4.0) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BOIS -2.9 (+7.1) | 124.9 (-4.9) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BOIS -2.6 (+7.4) | 126.2 (-6.2) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | BOIS 69 – 53 FRES |
| Mar 2, 2025 | BOIS 66 – 61 FRES |
| Feb 1, 2025 | BOIS 82 – 60 FRES |
| Feb 18, 2024 | BOIS 90 – 66 FRES |
| Jan 24, 2024 | BOIS 72 – 68 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BOIS | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 8-9 |
| Home | 13-3 | 14-4 |
| Away | 9-3 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | W4 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.0 | 59.6 |
| Massey | 9.0 (#54) | 8.7 (#55) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.05 (#95) | 1.56 (#68) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.50 (#92) | 2.08 (#66) |
| RPI | 0.558 (#85) | 0.578 (#57) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BOIS | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.9% | 44.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 76.8% | 76.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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