Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -13.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AF +2 | 96 | Won |
| Massey | USU -10.8 (+12.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.7 (-38.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -12.4 (+14.4) | 130.0 (-34.0) | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -10.0 (+12.0) | 138.3 (-42.3) | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USU -10.0 (+12.0) | 139.2 (-43.2) | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -10.1 (+12.1) | 134.9 (-38.9) | 23% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 7, 2026 | USU 99 – 62 AF |
| Mar 8, 2025 | USU 87 – 47 AF |
| Jan 25, 2025 | USU 87 – 58 AF |
| Mar 2, 2024 | USU 72 – 60 AF |
| Jan 2, 2024 | USU 88 – 60 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-18 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 4-13 | 8-10 |
| Home | 7-6 | 9-7 |
| Away | 2-11 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 59.0 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 67.0 |
| Massey | -6.1 (#274) | 9.0 (#51) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#191) | 1.57 (#66) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.65 (#226) | 2.42 (#55) |
| RPI | 0.446 (#265) | 0.572 (#62) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 48.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 39.3% |
| REB / G | 28.0 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 5.6 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 57.1% |
| TOV% | 24.2% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 20.3% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 16.4% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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