Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.0 Over |
| Money | PITT +155 ND -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +1 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | ND -2.3 (+1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.8 (+11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -2.0 (+1.0) | 130.6 (+4.4) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -1.0 (-0.0) | 130.1 (+4.9) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ND -1.7 (+0.7) | 130.6 (+4.4) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -1.8 (+0.8) | 129.2 (+5.8) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | PITT 73 – 68 ND |
| Mar 11, 2025 | ND 55 – 54 PITT |
| Feb 22, 2025 | ND 76 – 72 PITT |
| Feb 3, 2024 | PITT 70 – 60 ND |
| Mar 2, 2023 | ND 88 – 81 PITT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 15-5 |
| Home | 9-11 | 14-1 |
| Away | 2-9 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.5 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 67.2 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#220) | 4.3 (#107) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.45 (#219) | 0.57 (#131) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.96 (#238) | 0.89 (#121) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#185) | 0.539 (#111) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 30.0% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 76.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.5% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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