Betting Lines
| Spread | TA&M -28.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TA&M win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TA&M +26 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | TA&M -28.1 (-2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (-2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TA&M -23.6 (+2.4) | 152.3 (-8.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TA&M -23.8 (+2.2) | 150.6 (-6.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TA&M -27.9 (-1.9) | 150.8 (-6.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TA&M -27.4 (-1.4) | 150.0 (-6.0) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TA&M | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 6-4 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Massey | 6.8 (#78) | -16.9 (#354) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.14 (#39) | -1.70 (#302) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.62 (#48) | -2.18 (#299) |
| RPI | 0.570 (#63) | 0.413 (#307) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TA&M | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 26.9% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 16.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 55.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.6% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 64.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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