Betting Lines
| Spread | DEL -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +2 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | DEL -3.0 (+5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.8 (-1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEL -1.9 (+3.9) | 136.1 (+1.9) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEL -3.1 (+5.1) | 139.4 (-1.4) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DEL -2.6 (+4.6) | 140.2 (-2.2) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEL -3.7 (+5.7) | 138.9 (-0.9) | 39% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2025 | UNCW 76 – 72 DEL |
| Mar 2, 2025 | UNCW 88 – 58 DEL |
| Feb 6, 2025 | UNCW 77 – 67 DEL |
| Jan 14, 2024 | UNCW 79 – 74 DEL |
| Feb 18, 2023 | DEL 75 – 66 UNCW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | DEL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-2 | 9-5 |
| Away | 9-5 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 68.6 |
| Massey | -7.0 (#287) | 0.3 (#164) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.85 (#248) | 0.89 (#103) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.37 (#264) | 1.35 (#96) |
| RPI | 0.433 (#286) | 0.533 (#115) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | DEL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.9% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 28.4% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.7% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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