Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +5 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | HALL -0.8 (+5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.9 (-3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -1.6 (+3.4) | 139.7 (-4.7) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -0.6 (+4.4) | 139.2 (-4.2) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -1.1 (+3.9) | 136.5 (-1.5) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HALL -0.1 (+5.1) | 139.0 (-4.0) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | HALL 87 – 80 PROV |
| Dec 19, 2025 | HALL 72 – 67 PROV |
| Jan 29, 2025 | PROV 69 – 67 HALL |
| Jan 11, 2025 | PROV 91 – 85 HALL |
| Jan 24, 2024 | PROV 67 – 63 HALL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | HALL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-6 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 14-3 | 11-8 |
| Home | 16-1 | 13-3 |
| Away | 7-2 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 66.4 |
| Massey | 9.0 (#51) | 14.1 (#22) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.82 (#7) | 3.05 (#18) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.26 (#15) | 4.13 (#18) |
| RPI | 0.656 (#11) | 0.632 (#22) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | HALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 43.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 77.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.3% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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