Betting Lines
| Spread | FUR -11.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FUR +32 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | FUR -10.0 (+22.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.3 (-27.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FUR -8.2 (+23.8) | 149.9 (-19.9) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FUR -6.4 (+25.6) | 153.6 (-23.6) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FUR -6.2 (+25.8) | 153.2 (-23.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FUR -6.6 (+25.4) | 151.3 (-21.3) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | FUR 86 – 81 SAM |
| Jan 29, 2026 | FUR 78 – 73 SAM |
| Jan 15, 2026 | FUR 77 – 73 SAM |
| Mar 9, 2025 | FUR 95 – 78 SAM |
| Feb 20, 2025 | FUR 80 – 72 SAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FUR | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-3 | 13-2 |
| Away | 8-8 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.4 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 74.4 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#112) | -1.9 (#212) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.82 (#108) | 1.57 (#65) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#117) | 1.60 (#84) |
| RPI | 0.545 (#102) | 0.521 (#134) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FUR | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 39.0% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 22.8% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.1% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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