Betting Lines
| Spread | KU -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KU +27 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | KU -20.9 (+6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.7 (-16.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KU -16.6 (+10.4) | 161.3 (-12.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KU -19.4 (+7.6) | 163.1 (-14.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KU -20.1 (+6.9) | 164.4 (-15.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KU -20.1 (+6.9) | 163.8 (-14.8) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-6 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 6-12 |
| Home | 19-1 | 7-7 |
| Away | 6-4 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 9-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W11 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.2 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 74.1 |
| Massey | 18.2 (#9) | 1.7 (#133) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.40 (#10) | 0.41 (#143) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.28 (#4) | 0.51 (#139) |
| RPI | 0.676 (#6) | 0.547 (#100) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.9% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.2% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 36.2% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 17.3% |
Game Analysis
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