Betting Lines
| Spread | UTC -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTC +30 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | UTC -13.2 (+16.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.0 (-4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTC -10.0 (+20.0) | 141.0 (-7.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTC -11.3 (+18.7) | 145.2 (-11.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTC -11.3 (+18.7) | 145.1 (-11.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTC -12.3 (+17.7) | 140.4 (-6.4) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | ETSU 73 – 61 UTC |
| Jan 22, 2026 | ETSU 67 – 66 UTC |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UTC 78 – 71 ETSU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UTC 71 – 63 ETSU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | ETSU 85 – 84 UTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTC | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 7-11 |
| Home | 12-3 | 8-6 |
| Away | 12-4 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.4 | 73.2 |
| Massey | 9.1 (#50) | 0.3 (#162) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.98 (#47) | 0.55 (#129) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.43 (#54) | 0.87 (#119) |
| RPI | 0.612 (#29) | 0.521 (#128) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTC | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 38.9% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 10.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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