Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +14 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | MD -7.9 (+6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.2 (+13.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -8.0 (+6.0) | 136.6 (+11.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -6.0 (+8.0) | 136.8 (+11.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -6.9 (+7.1) | 137.2 (+10.8) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -7.0 (+7.0) | 137.5 (+10.5) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | BRWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 13-16 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 5-9 |
| Home | 10-8 | 6-7 |
| Away | 3-7 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 3.6 (#113) | 0.1 (#171) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#119) | 0.06 (#173) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.00 (#111) | 0.05 (#168) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#113) | 0.515 (#136) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | BRWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.0% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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