Betting Lines
| Spread | TAR -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +14 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | TAR -4.9 (-9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.7 (+19.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TAR -3.9 (-10.1) | 135.1 (+16.9) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TAR -3.9 (-10.1) | 136.6 (+15.4) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -3.8 (-10.2) | 138.4 (+13.6) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -4.6 (-9.4) | 135.7 (+16.3) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UTU 80 – 72 TAR |
| Jan 31, 2026 | UTU 65 – 59 TAR |
| Jan 18, 2026 | UTU 75 – 71 TAR |
| Jan 31, 2025 | TAR 61 – 54 UTU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | UTU 58 – 54 TAR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTU | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-6 | 10-5 |
| Away | 3-11 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 63.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 65.8 |
| Massey | -7.7 (#298) | 1.7 (#133) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#209) | -0.68 (#237) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#225) | 0.06 (#166) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#186) | 0.491 (#184) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTU | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 28.1% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 28.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 44.7% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.3% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 25.5% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.