Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -27.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +44 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | UK -25.1 (+18.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.6 (+0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -23.7 (+20.3) | 148.3 (-8.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -22.1 (+21.9) | 143.8 (-3.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -23.9 (+20.1) | 143.1 (-3.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -24.3 (+19.7) | 144.7 (-4.7) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Massey | 16.0 (#12) | -4.7 (#260) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.06 (#44) | -1.42 (#285) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.25 (#31) | -1.30 (#265) |
| RPI | 0.566 (#68) | 0.431 (#288) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 44.9 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 15.4 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 44.3% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.0% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 77.5% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.0% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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