Betting Lines
| Spread | CLE -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Over |
| Money | CLE -550 PFW +425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CLE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CLE +9 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | CLE -12.4 (-3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.9 (+27.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CLE -9.5 (-0.5) | 147.3 (+23.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CLE -9.3 (-0.3) | 148.9 (+22.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CLE -8.5 (+0.5) | 150.7 (+20.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CLE -9.9 (-0.9) | 147.9 (+23.1) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | PFW 92 – 86 CLE |
| Jan 4, 2026 | PFW 74 – 71 CLE |
| Mar 1, 2025 | CLE 68 – 57 PFW |
| Jan 31, 2025 | CLE 68 – 58 PFW |
| Feb 8, 2024 | CLE 75 – 72 PFW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CLE | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-11 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 15-6 | 15-6 |
| Home | 15-3 | 14-2 |
| Away | 5-7 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#184) | -8.4 (#305) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.02 (#180) | -1.25 (#278) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#175) | -1.98 (#293) |
| RPI | 0.473 (#219) | 0.400 (#328) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CLE | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 55.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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