Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WEB +10 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | MTST -7.4 (-17.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.8 (+18.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -3.5 (-13.5) | 144.1 (+15.9) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -5.4 (-15.4) | 142.7 (+17.3) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -5.0 (-15.0) | 142.4 (+17.6) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -4.2 (-14.2) | 143.1 (+16.9) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | WEB 82 – 79 MTST |
| Jan 25, 2026 | MTST 91 – 88 WEB |
| Feb 14, 2025 | MTST 74 – 66 WEB |
| Jan 19, 2025 | MTST 80 – 71 WEB |
| Mar 11, 2024 | MTST 91 – 82 WEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | WEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 13-7 |
| Home | 13-1 | 9-6 |
| Away | 9-6 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#138) | -1.5 (#204) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.69 (#118) | 0.50 (#131) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.74 (#125) | 0.61 (#132) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#98) | 0.508 (#150) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | WEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 19.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 76.6% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.3% | 13.3% |
Game Analysis
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