Betting Lines
| Spread | MICH -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +14 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -0.8 (+13.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.2 (+19.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -2.8 (+11.2) | 136.6 (+19.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -4.1 (+9.9) | 138.6 (+17.4) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -4.1 (+9.9) | 137.6 (+18.4) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -3.6 (+10.4) | 134.8 (+21.2) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2020 | MICH 80 – 58 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-12 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-9 |
| Home | 13-3 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-8 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 8.1 (#64) | 11.7 (#28) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.10 (#42) | 1.60 (#64) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.83 (#38) | 2.46 (#53) |
| RPI | 0.570 (#60) | 0.590 (#44) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 44.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.1% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 15.2% |
Game Analysis
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