Betting Lines
| Spread | MICH -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Under |
| Money | MICH -900 UCF +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MICH +22 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | MICH -10.7 (+11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.5 (+2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MICH -9.6 (+12.4) | 138.0 (-0.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MICH -10.8 (+11.2) | 138.5 (-0.5) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MICH -14.0 (+8.0) | 144.8 (-6.8) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2021 | UCF 85 – 71 MICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MICH | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-5 | 11-12 |
| Conference | 14-3 | 8-10 |
| Home | 13-1 | 6-3 |
| Away | 6-2 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.1 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#140) | -2.4 (#179) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.87 (#30) | 0.93 (#75) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.88 (#31) | 1.40 (#76) |
| RPI | 0.683 (#32) | 0.708 (#19) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MICH | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.2% | 36.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 43.3 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 0.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.2% | 43.0% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 25.0% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 23.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.3% | 37.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 29.2% |
| DRB% | 78.3% | 62.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 12.9% |
Game Analysis
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