Betting Lines
| Spread | CSUB -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUF +6 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | CSUF -0.7 (-5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.3 (+20.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSUB -0.1 (-6.1) | 126.6 (+13.4) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSUF -0.9 (-5.1) | 129.8 (+10.2) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSUF -1.1 (-4.9) | 129.5 (+10.5) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUF -1.0 (-5.0) | 127.8 (+12.2) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | CSUF 88 – 80 CSUB |
| Feb 8, 2026 | CSUF 82 – 66 CSUB |
| Feb 15, 2025 | CSUB 91 – 54 CSUF |
| Jan 24, 2025 | CSUB 71 – 68 CSUF |
| Feb 10, 2024 | CSUB 73 – 71 CSUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUB | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-19 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 2-12 | 11-4 |
| Home | 5-7 | 11-2 |
| Away | 2-11 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.8 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 66.4 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#248) | 0.9 (#150) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.19 (#160) | -0.10 (#188) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#164) | -0.03 (#181) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#142) | 0.484 (#201) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUB | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.8% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.52 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.8% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 15.4% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.8% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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